Canadian Home Sales Continued Their Upward Trend in January As Prices Fell Modestly
The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that home sales over the last two months show signs of recovery. National sales were up 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% gain in December. The chart below shows that despite the two-month rise, sales remain 9% below their ten-year average. According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Sales are up, market conditions have tightened quite a bit, and there has been anecdotal evidence of renewed competition among buyers; however, in areas where sales have shot up most over the last two months, prices are still trending lower. Taken together, these trends suggest a market that is starting to turn a corner but is still working through the weakness of the last two years.”

National gains were once again led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Hamilton-Burlington, Montreal, Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and most markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe and cottage country.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions was 22% above January 2023, the most significant year-over-year gain since May 2021. While that sounds like a resounding rise in activity, January 2023 posted the weakest transaction level in nearly twenty years.

There is pent-up demand for housing, and recent buyers are lured back into the market by the recent price decline and the fear that prices could rise significantly once the Bank of Canada starts cutting interest rates. 

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes increased 1.5% month-over-month in January, although it remains close to the lowest level since last June.

“The market has been showing some early signs of life over the last couple of months, probably no surprise given how much pent-up demand is out there,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA.

With sales up by more than new listings in January, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened further to 58.8% compared to under 50% just three months earlier. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.

There were 3.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2024, down from 3.8 months at the end of December and 4.1 months at the end of November. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) fell by 1.2% month-over-month in January 2024, adding to the 1.1% price decline in December.

Price descents of late have been predominantly in Ontario markets, particularly the Greater Golden Horseshoe and, to a lesser extent, British Columbia. Elsewhere in Canada, prices are mostly holding firm or, in some cases (Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador), continuing to rise.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 0.4% year-over-year in January 2024, similar to readings over the past six months.

Bottom Line

Sales in December and January generally run at about half the peak spring season pace. That could be especially true this year, with interest rates likely to begin falling by mid-year. A strong housing rebound is coming. Housing markets have bottomed, buyer sentiment is improving and fixed mortgage rates have started declining.

Housing markets in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal are relatively balanced again, and with the spring season, we will see a rise in new listings.

In other news, the inflation data released yesterday in the US were higher than expected, pushing rate-cut forecasts further out. With the strength in the US economy, the 5-year government of Canada bond yield has quietly risen more than 50 basis points this year.

Canada’s Housing Minister, Sean Fraser, said he expects the fall in interest rates this year to encourage builders to ramp up their activity, helping to alleviate some of the country’s crunched housing supply. At a news conference yesterday, the minister said, “My expectation is if we see a dip in interest rates over the course of this year, a lot of the developers that I’ve spoken to will start those projects that are marginal today.”

Sean Fraser, asked whether he’s concerned that Bank of Canada rate cuts will unleash pent-up demand and higher home prices, said lower borrowing costs should also lead to an increase in supply. Fraser said whatever happens with rates, the government’s course of action will remain the same. “We need to do everything we can as quickly as we can to build as many homes as we can. And that’s going to be true today and six months from now, regardless of what may happen in the interest rate environment that we’re dealing with.”

At a news conference last week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that while he’s heard from developers who’ve indicated higher rates are delaying projects, lowering rates would have a more significant impact on demand.

“It’s very clear in the data that the effects of interest rates on demand are much bigger than those on supply,” he told reporters.

CLICK HERE to read the full report

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• Log in to My Mortgage
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Already registered for electronic annual statements? You can still enter the contest! Click on the contest entry image and answer the contest question.

What would 20K more for 2024 allow you to do?  Feel free to call our office at 604-552-6190 if you would like more information or how to obtain a First National mortgage. Good luck! 

Trish & The Primex Team

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that the key interest rate will be raised another 25 basis points. This morning’s announcement will be the fifth interest rate announcement of 2023, but the 10th rate hike since the start of the tightening in 2022, with three more scheduled for the rest of this year. The next announcement is September 6th.

Prime Rate is now at 7.20%, the highest it’s been in 22 years.

Last month’s announcement raised the key rate another 0.25%. These rate hikes are supposed to relieve inflation. Canada’s inflation rate rose to 8.1% in June, but Statistics Canada reports that consumer spending has remained high. The annual change in the Consumer Price Index measures inflation.

The BoC’s goal is to keep inflation around 2%, but their forecasters are currently predicting inflation will return to 2% closer to mid 2025. The Forecasters say that this is due to excess demand, higher than expected housing prices and higher than expected prices for tradable goods.

Experts weren’t sure if this rate hike would bring another rate hike or hold. Experts shared that if the BoC increased the rate by another 0.25%, we should see a decrease in prices in the housing market.

Over the past two years, prices of goods and services have risen rapidly, corrupting the dollar’s purchasing power and making life less affordable for Canadians. Raising the rates makes it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and service their debts. Higher rates will eventually reduce demand for goods and services, slowing the pace of price increases.

Interest rate changes often fully impact economic growth inflation 18 to 24 months after an announced change.

CIBC Senior economist Andrew Grantham seems to disagree with the interest rate hikes, calling recent hikes “unnecessary” and a “mistake.” Grantham said that current consumer spending is still lower than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that much of the growth in consumer spending is levelling out to regular numbers since the pandemic lock down.

If you are concerned about increased mortgage payments or how this might affect you, please do not hesitate to reach out. We can analyze your current situation and assess your goals and needs for the upcoming years and find the best option for you. We have been able to help many clients switch from Variable to Fixed these past few months to save them from the increasing payments out of their control. If you are wondering how restructuring your mortgage can help free up cash flow or manage your debt, then let’s chat!

CLICK HERE to book a quick call to review your mortgage!

604-552-6190

support@primexmortgages.com

Trish & The Primex Team

The Bank of Canada recently announced a rate increase of 0.25% on June 7th. Making their prime rate 6.95%, a 22-year record high.

The prime rate affects variable-rate mortgages and personal & home equity lines of credit. The increase translates into roughly $15 monthly for every $100,000 worth of mortgage debt for variable-rate mortgage holders.

The Bank of Canada announced this rate hike because of its need to control the excess spending in this economy and the rising inflation rate.

Economists expect to see another rate increase in July of 0.25% again.

But this doesn’t only affect variable interest rates. The fixed-rate impacts mortgage borrowers through bond yields, which determines where fixed rates stand. The rise in the Bank of Canada rate hike and the expectation of another increase next month caused bonds to plunge and yields to surge to a 15-year high. This resulted in lenders increasing their fixed rates over the past several weeks. This impacts new buyers and those with a mortgage renewal coming up.

The earliest rate cuts are now expected in the summer of 2024.

It’s a similar scenario south of the border, where additional rate hikes are now likely despite yesterday’s rate pause by the Federal Reserve. New projections show they expect the benchmark rate to rise by another half a percentage point, while other officials believe it needs to move even higher.

The latest rate hikes have made fixed mortgage rates under 5% a “rare find.” Almost every mortgage product has rates that start at 5% and 6%. It is recommended that anyone in the market for a mortgage act right away to get a rate held for them. We will likely see more hikes to fixed-rate mortgages.

Anyone who is in the market for a mortgage and is still deciding what fixed rate term to choose, we are here to remind you that you can break your mortgage term. It does come with a penalty, but it can be broken. If you lock into a fixed-rate mortgage now, and the rates start to come down in the upcoming years, you are more than welcome to break the mortgage term and lock into a new rate.

Especially those with a variable rate mortgage who are struggling to ride this wave of rate increases are encouraged to talk with a mortgage expert here at Primex Mortgages to see if locking into a fixed rate mortgage makes sense for you.

Trish & The Primex Team

Contact us today!

604-552-6190

support@primexmortgages.com

CLICK HERE to book a quick call to review your mortgage!

Read more about the mortgage industry at www.canadianmortgagetrends.com

This morning it was announced that the Bank of Canada increased its rate by .25%. The rate went from 6.70% to 6.95%. The central bank’s key interest rate has not been this high since April 2001.

After two consecutive rate pauses from the Bank of Canada, the bond market and the GDP are trending upward, putting more weight on the Bank of Canada. Almost expecting another rate increase rather than continuing to pause.

Several factors led to the bank’s decision to raise the key interest rate, including economic growth in Canada. Gross Domestic Product exceeded expectations in the first quarter of this year, growing by 3.1 per cent.

Despite the fact that most households have less disposable income, consumer spending is not slowing at a pace that gives the Bank of Canada confidence that inflation will tick downward. The Spring real estate market has had no shortage of open house activity and multiple offer scenarios once again.

Canada’s economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP growth of 3.1%. Consumption growth was surprisingly strong. In addition, spending on interest-sensitive goods increased and, more recently, housing market activity has picked up.

In April, inflation increased for the first time in 10 months to 4.4%. The bank still expects inflation to decline to 3% by this summer, but concerns remain that inflation could get stuck above the 2% target.

“Goods price inflation increased, despite lower energy costs,” reads the statement from CTV News. “Services price inflation remained elevated, reflecting strong demand and a tight labor market.”

Rates have been moving all week resulting in Fixed Rates rising slightly due to the increase to the Bond Market. With the recent announcement of GDP trending upwards, which is not the direction we want in order to keep the BoC rates paused. Also, April’s high inflation rates may have caused the BoC to increase the rates. Major central banks are signaling that interest rates may have to rise further to restore price stability.

Some economists were thinking that the BoC will wait until they see May’s employment statistics, which will be released this Friday after the BoC announcement, to make any changes to the rates. Overnight Index Swap markets are currently pricing in a 34% chance of a rate hike this week, but odds rise to 78% for the Bank’s July meeting

Economists from Desjardins similarly noted earlier this week that whether or not the Bank will hike rates this week is “almost a coin flip at this point.”

If you are stressed or struggling to make ends meet, especially with this new rate hike. Please do not hesitate to contact us today to discuss your options. We understand how frustrating this situation can be.

We can look into switching from a Variable rate to a Fixed rate Mortgage, and arrange all things necessary for you and your family.

You can call the office at 604-552-6190, or you can CLICK HERE to book a free mortgage consultation call with Trish.

Trish & The Primex Team

The Bank Of Canada announced this morning to keep their key overnight rate of 4.5%. As the Bank is still waiting to assess the impact of its previous eight consecutive rate hikes.

Previous Bank of Canada announcement also decided to keep the current interest rate. But It was threatened that it was conditional, making it clear that they will be ready to raise interest rates further if inflation doesn’t come down quickly enough.

Most forecasters expected the Bank to leave its key lending rate at 4.5% this Wednesday morning. Investors seem to agree, with trading on the overnight swaps market indicating less than a 10% chance of a change. But CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld says the bank may add cautionary language to its announcement that it could restart its inflation-fighting rate hikes again.

The Bank of Canada says they expect the annual inflation rate to fall to around 2-3% by mid-year. However, the poll suggests that inflation is still running at 5.2%, well over twice the BoC’s 2% target.

In March, the BoC became the first major central bank to stop its aggressive hiking cycle and is currently on a conditional pause. A majority of forecasters in the Reuters poll, 23 out of 31, believe that the rate will remain unchanged for the rest of 2023.

The BoC Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle said the Canadian banking system had a well-earned international reputation for stability, suggesting that policymakers are more focused on inflation and how the economy is performing.

Have questions about today’s announcement? Don’t hesitate to contact us at the office at 604-552-6190. Or you can CLICK HERE to book a quick call to review your mortgage!

Trish & The Primex Team 

Earlier this year we expected a .25% increase at the January announcement and saw exactly that. This next rate announcement is expected to not increase or decrease. After 8 consecutive rate hikes over the past year, the Bank of Canada is expected to leave rates unchanged. The Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.

This morning, March 8th, it was announced exactly what was widely expected by economists. They have decided to hold the rate at 4.5% for the first time in a year, while reiterating its wait-and-see approach. The Bank of Canada says it still expects the annual inflation rate to fall to around 2-3% by mid-year.

Which leads economists to question what is going to happen after the March announcement.

“The U.S. Federal Reserve is probably going to be tightening at least two more times, if not more. For the Bank of Canada, if inflation remains sticky and if the economy does not break down, are they going to be able to sit there with the policy rates they have and pause as they suggested?” said Robert Kavcic, director and senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Since March of last year, the bank has raised its rate from near- 0% to 4.5%, the highest it’s been since 2007. Making it the fastest rate tightening cycle in its history, in hopes of tamping down on inflation. Although they announced this pause in rate hikes, they stressed it was conditional, making it clear that they will be ready to raise interest rates further if inflation doesn’t come down quickly enough.

“They wouldn’t want to announce a pause and then immediately not go through with (it),” said Karyne Charbonneau, CIBC’s executive director of economics.

Most recent inflation data suggests that the country is inching closer to normal price growth. Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 5.9% in January, down from its peak of 8.1% it reached last summer. With interest rates now at a 16-year high, most economists anticipate a mild recession sometime this year.

The market is a little volatile so our advice is that anyone shopping for a home currently, should get a pre-approval to hold today’s rate for up to 120 days. This will allow you to secure today’s rate, and if rates were to drop any further, you will still be eligible for lower interest rates. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us at Primex if you have any questions or concerns regarding your mortgage.

Trish & The Primex Team

The Bank of Canada was expected to raise rates another .25% higher, and that is exactly what was announced this morning. The policy rate is now 4.50%, the highest rate since 2007. Which is the bank’s 8th consecutive rate hike in the past year, but the smallest one yet.

Some have predicted that for the year of 2023 the rates will continue to trend upward, but the Bank of Canada stated today that this could be the peak for this current tightening cycle as inflation is expected to “decline significantly” in the upcoming months. For Canadians, this means an extra $15.67 added to your mortgage payment for every $100,000 in mortgage. 

“We’ve raised rates rapidly, and now it’s time to pause and assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to its two per cent target,” Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters after the rate announcement.

As of this January, there is an agreement between the big banks that in 2023 a recession will happen in Canada. Although economists are saying that this recession would likely be mild to moderate in comparison to previous recessions.

The banks have a real-time view of cardholder spending data and are well-positioned to report on economic trends sooner, and what we are learning is that spending is decreasing significantly due to higher costs throughout the economy and with higher interest rate expenses, we are at the point of an overall economic slowdown. But with lower spending comes a slowing economy and lower inflation, and eventually, lower mortgage interest rates.

At this time of higher rates, there is no good low rate to lock into. With this said, a calculated approach should be considered to position yourself to take advantage of lower rates once they begin to fall. Therefore a shorter term on your mortgage such as a 3 year fixed rate, could position you better to renew into a lower fixed rate in 3 years’ time. The typical 5 year term may be too long for a higher rate.

But for those with a higher tolerance to risk, a variable rate may be worth considering. Given over 40 years of rate data, as seen in a York University study on Canadian interest rates, the variable rate is likely to lead to more significant savings over years. As soon as the rate begins to fall, as predicted to in late 2023 or early 2024, the variable rate holder will benefit immediately. This ‘lower rate sooner’ potential could lead to more savings than locking in even a shorter term fixed rate. But with variable rates higher currently and another 0.25% increase announced today, it will take a strong willed person in 2023 to realize these savings over the next few years.

Have any more questions about what this means for you and your family? Don’t hesitate to reach out to us at Primex Mortgages, we would be more than happy to chat!

Trish & The Primex Team