On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left rates unchanged, noting it still remains concerned about the risks of inflation, even as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.9% in January. It also reiterated its pledge to continue its policy of quantitative tightening. Although inflation came in under expectations and data is leading towards rate cuts, they are not quite ready to do so. Most analysts are predicting we will not see a rate drop until June of this year and some are expecting that we will see two rate cuts by the end of 2024. If that was the case, then that would be a rate reduction of .50% to Prime. Currently Prime rate is at 7.20% so we could see it dropping to 6.70% by year end. Time will tell.
The bond market has dropped this week which has a direct impact on Fixed rates so you will be happy to hear we are seeing some relief on those rates as well.
Here are some of the economic insights from one of our great lender partners First National Financial. They have summarized the Bank’s comments below.
Canadian inflation
- Shelter-price inflation remains elevated “and is the biggest contributor to inflation”
- Underlying inflationary pressures persist: year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are in the 3% to 3.5% range, and the share of CPI components growing above 3% declined but is still above the historical average
Canadian economic performance and employment
- The Canadian economy grew in the fourth quarter by more than the BoC expected, “although the pace remained weak and below potential”
- Real GDP expanded by 1% after contracting 0.5% in the third quarter
- Consumption was up a modest 1%, and final domestic demand contracted with a large decline in business investment
- A strong increase in exports boosted growth
- Employment continues to grow more slowly than the population, and there are now some signs that wage pressures may be easing
- Overall, the data point to “an economy in modest excess supply”
Global economic performance and bond yields
- Global economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2023
- U.S. GDP growth also slowed but remained “surprisingly robust and broad-based,” with solid contributions from consumption and exports
- Euro area economic growth was flat at the end of the year after contracting in the third quarter
- Inflation in the U.S. and the Euro area continued to ease
- Bond yields have increased since January while corporate credit spreads have narrowed
- Equity markets have risen sharply
- Global oil prices are slightly higher than what was assumed in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR)
Outlook
The Bank’s statement this month was relatively short and its forward-looking comments limited, except its observation that it expects inflation to “remain close to 3% during the first half of the year before gradually easing.” However, it noted that its Governing Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly “the persistence in underlying inflation.” Governing Council wants to see “further and sustained easing” in core inflation and said it continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behavior.
Once again, the Bank repeated its mantra that it remains “resolute” in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians. So for the timing being, the policy rate will remain at 5.0% where it’s been since July of 2023.
Next Rate Announcement
On April 10, 2024, the Bank returns with another interest rate announcement including updated economic commentary.
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