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March 2025 Rate Cut from Bank of Canada
Latest News Trish Pigott 12 Mar
Latest News Trish Pigott 12 Mar
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General Trish Pigott 6 Mar
UPDATE 3/6/25: Just as I was about to send this apparently Trump has paused the tariffs to Mexico and now Canada until April 2. Good grief….how does anyone keep up with this…either way here are some tips below if he is back at it next month on how to handle your mortgage and potentially take advantage of falling rates.
On Tuesday, March 4, 2025 Trump has imposed tariffs of 25% on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, 10% on Canadian energy, and an additional 10% on goods from China and has since already scaled back on 3 automotive suppliers. Canada has come back with retaliatory tariffs and now we end up in a trade war with the US. There is so much debacle with the entire Trump administration, it’s mind blowing that this is where we are in todays day and age.
Over the last few days we’ve seen a wild ride in the stock markets and as a result the bond market has fallen which directly affects fixed mortgage rates. We have not seen the bond market this low since mid 2022. We have also had multiple economists report yesterday and today that the Bank of Canada will respond with additional rate cuts to the overnight target rate (which affects the Prime rate) and now expected that we will see 4 more cuts by July of this year with the first one next week.
How does this affect mortgage holders;
So in summary, while we may see lower rates over the course of this year, be very diligent with your spending habits right now as we see how everything will unfold with our borders and overall economy.
Now more than ever is the time to get your finances in order to prepare and plan. To get started and put a plan in place, contact me directly at 604-729-7940.
We are watching this daily and I will have an update out next week with the Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement on March 12, 2025.
Latest News Trish Pigott 12 Feb
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Latest News Trish Pigott 11 Dec
Things are getting easier for First Time Home Buyers (FTHB) to qualify and have more flexibility with payments when getting into the market. Effective Dec. 15, 2024, FTHB can now purchase a home up to $1.5M with an insured mortgage. This was previously capped at $1M and as home values in the Vancouver market have continued to go up drastically over the past 5 years, this has put a lot of properties out of reach for buyers that want to get into a detached home. This now allows buyers to have less than 20% down payment. Previous rules required home buyers to have 20% down or more when purchasing over $1M.
Another change effective next week is that FTHB can now get a 30 year amortization as well when taking an insured mortgage. Previously the longest amortization buyers could get with an insured mortgage was 25 years. This helps with affordability as well as qualification. This change is also available to those purchasing new construction properties as their principal residence whether you are a first time buyer or not. You can now take an insured mortgage up to $1.5M on a newly constructed home and get the 30 year amortization.
We have 3 insurers in Canada, CMHC, Sagen and Canada Guaranty (CG). Information is starting to come out from all banks and insurers on these policy changes. Here’s a snapshot of the changes:
30yr amortizations:
Down payment requirements are the same for insured mortgages, it is calculated as:
5% of the first $500,000, then 10% on the remaining amount. Example on a purchase price of $1.1M
$25,000 (up to $500,000)
$60,000 (remaining $600,000)
$85,000 Minimum Down Payment
Total Minimum Down Payment on a purchase price of $1.1M is $85,000
For any purchase price over $1.5M, the minimum down payment is 20% of the purchase price.
For more information or to discuss a specific file, please reach out to our team at support@primexmortgages.com or 604-552-6190
Latest News Trish Pigott 11 Dec
Good news this morning for our Variable Rate Mortgage holders and anyone with a loan attached to the Prime rate. Today it was cut by .50% effective tomorrow which in turn will lower mortgage and loan payments. For those with static payments, such as mortgages with TD, RBC and others, you will now be paying more towards the principal and less to interest. Below is the news release from DLC’s own economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper.
If you want help or advice for anything mortgage related or how these rate cuts affect you, please connect with us at the office and we would love to chat more with you about it.
The BoC slashed the overnight rate by 50 bps this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25%. The market had priced in nearly 90% odds of a 50 bp move, where consensus coalesced. The combined slower-than-expected GDP growth and a sharp rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% triggered the Bank’s second consecutive jumbo rate cut. Today’s move will take the prime rate down 50 bps to 5.45% effective tomorrow, reducing floating rate mortgage loan rates by a half point, easing the cost of borrowing and reducing the monthly payment increase for renewals. This should spark housing activity, which accelerated in October and November.
The policy rate is now at the top of the estimated neutral rate range, 2.25% to 3.25%, with more moderate rate cuts continuing into next year. However, monetary policy remains restrictive, as the 3.25% policy rate is still 125 basis points above inflation, which has declined to roughly 2%, the Bank’s inflation target.
Economists have suggested that the tone of the central bank’s press release is more hawkish than before, unsurprising following two consecutive jumbo rate cuts. The Bank continues to say that its future decisions are data-dependent and will be impacted by policy measures taken by the government. In particular, the Bank highlighted the coming GST cuts, dispersal of bonus checks and the significant reduction in immigration. These developments have offsetting implications for inflation.
Governor Macklem signaled that he anticipated “a more gradual approach to monetary policy” in his press conference. We are forecasting 25 bp rate cuts through at least the first half of next year. That would take the overnight rate down to 2.5% by early June, a huge boost to housing that will likely enjoy a strong spring season.
Bottom Line
Today’s action is great news for the Canadian economy and housing activity. The central bank said that planned immigration target reductions are the “most significant” factor for the 2025 outlook and suggest below-forecast GDP growth. However, the “effects on inflation will likely be more muted, given that lower immigration dampens both demand and supply.” Lower immigration is one of the “factors” that caused the BoC to cut 50 bps and not 25, Macklem said.
During this cycle, the Bank of Canada has been the most aggressive central bank in cutting rates. Even so, the Canadian dollar edged higher following the Bank’s announcement, likely because markets now expect a more moderate pace of rate reduction next year.
Latest News Trish Pigott 23 Oct
As expected, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight target rate by .50%. The largest cut we have seen since the pandemic and well deserved for our Variable Rate Mortgage holders (including me) who have continued to ride out the past two years. Inflation and all economic data supported this rate cut.
DLC’s own economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper is anticipating we could see a total of another 1.25% cuts to this rate by Spring of next year. This morning’s .50% rate cut reinforces speculation of another .50% cut in December. However, the Bank will likely need to see continued weak economic data and low inflation to prompt another big move.
Below is more detail that came from Sherry Cooper and her bottom line is that, we will see a more robust market with the recent mortgage rule changes, lower rates and so many people that have been sitting on the sidelines.
“Resales and renovations are anticipated to recover as interest rates decline. Renovations should also be supported by a projected rise in house prices. Recent changes to government mortgage insurance rules are expected to bolster housing demand. Although population growth should ease, the level of demand is expected to remain robust and support new construction. Lower interest rates may also facilitate some increase in housing supply by easing financing costs. However, constraints on the amount of land available for new homes, zoning restrictions and a lack of skilled labour are expected to limit the pace of construction, particularly over the near term. As a result, growth in housing demand is expected to outpace increases in supply. Unlike other sectors of the economy that are experiencing excess supply, the housing market is projected to remain tight. House prices are expected to rise, but the pace of increases will likely be restrained because some home buyers will face affordability challenges”.
Today’s action is great news for the Canadian economy and housing activity. Market participants are now expecting home resales to pick up sharply in the first quarter of next year. The coming spring housing season should be robust, boosting sales and prices. If you would like to read the full article CLICK HERE
Now is also a great time to look at your own mortgage if you have one and see if you have room to improve your rate. Often times it makes sense to pay a penalty and break the term early as you may reduce your monthly payments and save in interest overall. We can help with that, reach out and we will run different scenarios for you to see what makes sense.
Contact us at the office at 604-552-6190 or support@primexmortgages.com
Latest News Trish Pigott 25 Sep
In a significant win for consumers, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) has kicked the stress test to the curb for straight switches of uninsured mortgages.
Starting November 21, if you’ve got an uninsured mortgage, you can switch lenders without having to prove you can afford a rate that’s at least 200 bps higher.
Since 2018, the industry’s been nagging regulators for this change, and finally, the right people listened.
OSFI tells us:
“We can confirm that today in discussion with the Globe and Mail, the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Peter Routledge indicated that OSFI intends to inform industry we will end our expectation that lenders apply the Minimum Qualifying Rate (MQR) to straight switches of uninsured mortgages at renewal.”
“Straight switches are uninsured mortgages that are renewed at a new lender under the mortgagor’s current amortization schedule and current loan amount under that amortization schedule,” a regulator spokesperson added.
“There are two primary reasons for this change. First, we are listening to what we have heard from industry and from Canadians about the imbalance between insured and uninsured mortgagors at the time of mortgage renewal.”
“Second, when we look at the data over time, we have observed that the prudential risks that this was intended to address have not significantly materialized. As a prudential regulator we enable banks and lenders to compete and take reasonable risks.”
“We are working with FRFIs to ensure they are prepared for this change and intend to formally communicate our intentions as part of our quarterly regulatory release pilot, the next date for which is November 21, 2024.”
Today, if you want to switch lenders for a better deal on the average $300,000 mortgage, you need to prove $81,300 of income.
Once this new policy takes effect, that drops to $71,000 of income, 12.7% less.
Ballpark industry estimates have suggested that OSFI’s policy blocked at least 5% to 10% of switches, but that number grew as rates soared in the last hike cycle.
With this restriction lifted, borrowers might save anywhere from 5 to 25 bps on a prime renewal rate, maybe more. We’re talking $1,400 of savings over five years, assuming a 10 bps average rate improvement on a $300,000 switch.
In closing, we must say hats off to OSFI for re-looking at the data and making the right call for consumers here. It mustn’t have been easy, given their firm opposition to stress-test-free switches previously, but OSFI did the right thing. And that’s a credibility booster in industry circles.
Thank you Rob for such great insight as always!
General Trish Pigott 15 Feb
Canadian Home Sales Continued Their Upward Trend in January As Prices Fell Modestly
The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that home sales over the last two months show signs of recovery. National sales were up 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% gain in December. The chart below shows that despite the two-month rise, sales remain 9% below their ten-year average. According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Sales are up, market conditions have tightened quite a bit, and there has been anecdotal evidence of renewed competition among buyers; however, in areas where sales have shot up most over the last two months, prices are still trending lower. Taken together, these trends suggest a market that is starting to turn a corner but is still working through the weakness of the last two years.”
National gains were once again led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Hamilton-Burlington, Montreal, Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and most markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe and cottage country.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions was 22% above January 2023, the most significant year-over-year gain since May 2021. While that sounds like a resounding rise in activity, January 2023 posted the weakest transaction level in nearly twenty years.
There is pent-up demand for housing, and recent buyers are lured back into the market by the recent price decline and the fear that prices could rise significantly once the Bank of Canada starts cutting interest rates.
New Listings
The number of newly listed homes increased 1.5% month-over-month in January, although it remains close to the lowest level since last June.
“The market has been showing some early signs of life over the last couple of months, probably no surprise given how much pent-up demand is out there,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA.
With sales up by more than new listings in January, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened further to 58.8% compared to under 50% just three months earlier. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.
There were 3.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2024, down from 3.8 months at the end of December and 4.1 months at the end of November. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.
Home Prices
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) fell by 1.2% month-over-month in January 2024, adding to the 1.1% price decline in December.
Price descents of late have been predominantly in Ontario markets, particularly the Greater Golden Horseshoe and, to a lesser extent, British Columbia. Elsewhere in Canada, prices are mostly holding firm or, in some cases (Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador), continuing to rise.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 0.4% year-over-year in January 2024, similar to readings over the past six months.
Bottom Line
Sales in December and January generally run at about half the peak spring season pace. That could be especially true this year, with interest rates likely to begin falling by mid-year. A strong housing rebound is coming. Housing markets have bottomed, buyer sentiment is improving and fixed mortgage rates have started declining.
Housing markets in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal are relatively balanced again, and with the spring season, we will see a rise in new listings.
In other news, the inflation data released yesterday in the US were higher than expected, pushing rate-cut forecasts further out. With the strength in the US economy, the 5-year government of Canada bond yield has quietly risen more than 50 basis points this year.
Canada’s Housing Minister, Sean Fraser, said he expects the fall in interest rates this year to encourage builders to ramp up their activity, helping to alleviate some of the country’s crunched housing supply. At a news conference yesterday, the minister said, “My expectation is if we see a dip in interest rates over the course of this year, a lot of the developers that I’ve spoken to will start those projects that are marginal today.”
Sean Fraser, asked whether he’s concerned that Bank of Canada rate cuts will unleash pent-up demand and higher home prices, said lower borrowing costs should also lead to an increase in supply. Fraser said whatever happens with rates, the government’s course of action will remain the same. “We need to do everything we can as quickly as we can to build as many homes as we can. And that’s going to be true today and six months from now, regardless of what may happen in the interest rate environment that we’re dealing with.”
At a news conference last week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that while he’s heard from developers who’ve indicated higher rates are delaying projects, lowering rates would have a more significant impact on demand.
“It’s very clear in the data that the effects of interest rates on demand are much bigger than those on supply,” he told reporters.
CLICK HERE to read the full report
General Trish Pigott 4 Oct
Exciting news for First national clients!
Imagine beginning the new year with an extra $20,000 towards your mortgage – a substantial boost that can truly make a difference. With such financial momentum, the possibilities are endless, and dreams can become reality.
If you have your mortgage with First National, then you are a lucky one as they are thrilled to introduce the $20K more for 2024 contest, offering First National clients the opportunity to win a $20,000 mortgage prepayment. Entering is simple, and every First National mortgage is eligible for one entry into the contest.
Here are the key details:
Entering is a breeze:
Already registered for electronic annual statements? You can still enter the contest! Click on the contest entry image and answer the contest question.
What would 20K more for 2024 allow you to do? Feel free to call our office at 604-552-6190 if you would like more information or how to obtain a First National mortgage. Good luck!
Trish & The Primex Team
General Trish Pigott 9 Aug
When purchasing a home, most offers include conditions or subjects, which are requirements or criteria to be met before the sale can be finalized and the property is transferred. Some of the most common subjects include:
The purpose of these subjects is to protect the buyer from making a poor investment and ensure no hidden surprises regarding financing, insurance, or the state of the property.
These conditions are written up in the purchase offer with a removal date. The seller agrees to this before the sale is finalized. The deal can go through, assuming the subjects are lifted by the removal date. If the subjects are not lifted (perhaps financing falls through or something is revealed during the home inspection), the buyer can waive the offer, and the purchase becomes void.
However, recently, especially in heightened housing markets, subject-free (or condition-free) offers have emerged. These are purchase offers that are submitted without any criteria required! Essentially, what you see is what you get.
Below we have outlined the impact of subject-free offers on both buyers and sellers to help you better understand the risks and outcomes:
Pros of Subject-Free Offers
Cons of Subject-Free Offers
Financing Around Subject-Free Offers
When submitting a subject-free offer, it is up to the buyer to do as much due diligence as possible before submitting. They must identify what the lender seeks to ensure they walk away with a mortgage. Though approval is never certain, prospective buyers placing a subject-free offer should do their best to secure financing beforehand.
Contractual Obligations
Be mindful when it comes to purchasing offers versus purchase agreements. While your purchase offer is a written proposal to purchase, the purchase agreement is an entire contract between the buyer and seller. The purchase offer acts as a letter of intent, setting the terms you propose to buy the home. If financing falls through, for example, the contract is breached, where the buyer may lose the deposit.
It is also essential to be aware of a breach of contract if a seller chooses to take action. For example, if you submit a subject-free offer of $500,000 and cannot secure financing for that offer, and the seller turns around and is only able to get a $400,000 deal with another buyer, they could potentially sue the initial buyer for the difference due to breach of contract.
Preparing a Subject-Free Offer
If you have decided to go ahead with a subject-free offer, regardless of the risks, there are some things you can do to mitigate potential issues, including:
While there are things that can be done to help with subject-free offers, it is still risky. Ultimately submitting an offer with subjects gives you the time and ability to gather information on the above and access to the property or home for inspections.
Before making any offers, get a Pre-Approval in place so you can make the best decision. If you are intent on submitting a subject-free offer, discuss it with your real estate agent, as they can determine if a subject-free offer is necessary or if a short closing window would suffice to seal the deal. A good realtor will also keep you informed of potential interest and other bids during the process. Their goal should be to maximize your opportunity and minimize your risk.
Getting ready to put an offer in on your dream home? Call us first, we have many strategies to help shorten the traditional subject period and make your offer more competitive without going subject free to protect yourself.
604-552-6190
Trish & The Primex Team